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Friday, January 8, 2010

Future predictions

MediaBistro’s Galleycat blog is featuring an interesting series of articles with predictions for the publishing industry in ten years. They posted predictions from Seth Godin, Richard Curtis, Mark Coker, Jane Dystel, Richard Nash and Scott Steinberg. A few interesting items are Richard Curtis’ prediction that college students will begin using tablet PCs this fall and by 2011 or 2012, tablets will replace laptops on campuses across the nation. Mark Coker believes that in ten years, 95% of all reading will be on screen and Seth Godin says,
“This is the decade when book publishing will (finally) be transformed from a business that chops down trees and puts returnable books into bookstores... into one that finds ideas, funds the writers that need it, and uses their (authors' and publishers') leverage and skills to promote those ideas to people willing to pay for them, in whatever format is the most efficient way to get that transaction to occur. If that doesn't happen, and the industry (led by reactionary old-school CEOs) persists in defining itself as being in the book business, it will be 15% the size it is today by the end of the decade. It's our choice."
Gallycat also has a number of interesting posts about different e-readers and developments at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) out in Las Vegas. Such as their Video Tours of e-readers.

1 comment:

Stacy Waymire said...

Good posting Mark! The question here at CES seems to be "Who doesn't have an e-reader?" :-) And there are companies prepared to aid OEMs and ODMs in having their "own" e-reader.

In terms of future predictions about "reading", at least for hgiher ed (and possible other market segments) you must consider the integration of reading and social networking, group studying, interactive multiple support teaching (vitual classroom) etc. Reading as an activity and component of learning may/will be one of several integrated elements. We will not just "read." And in higher ed, it will be less than ten years - more like tomorrow.