Future of the ebook

In the Technology section of CNN.com there was a recent article on ebook readers, their limitations and their future. The article starts off with nothing all that new -- i.e., that ebooks, and the Kindle, are "not quite there yet," but getting close. Three key limitations are noted --

(1) Lack of extensive wireless, or wireless options outside of the States.
(2) Current readers are focused on text and mostly limited to "text-only, grayscale versiouns of otherwise colorful and lively" content.
(3) Lack of ebook inventory diversity.

Each of these limitations are ultimately surmountable the piece argues. In that process, the article does provide some interesting content and quotes. Here are some of the points of interest:

• For E Ink, the next frontier is color. Qualcomm's mirasol technology, still in development, uses biomimetics to engineer low-power, flat-panel, color-rich displays viewable in any
  lighting condition, based on butterfly wings.
• There is some interesting coverage of the recent history of e-book readers, from Sony's Librie, to the Iliad by iRex, and of course, the Amazon Kindle.
• Technology takes time to be adopted. It begins with everyone saying, "why would I ever use that," and eventually becomes a mainstream concept. Note the last quote below (noted as my favorite) for a samplinng.

And here are some of the more "quotable quotes":

• In response to the lingering fetish for the printed page, Bezos sighed: "I'm sure people loved their horses too, but you're not going to keep riding a horse to work."
• E-book sales are still a small, but fast-growing segment of our overall revenue," says Simon & Schuster's Adam Rothberg. "In 2007 we experienced a 40 percent growth over 2006. If current trends for 2008 hold, we expect that we will double or better that growth."
• Long before the success of "Brokeback Mountain," Fiction Pulitzer Prize winner Annie Proulx infamously told the New York Times in 1994: "Nobody is going to sit down and read a novel on a twitchy little screen. Ever." Today, no less than seven of her authored books are available in Kindle edition from Amazon.
• The main thing," Silicon Valley-based user-interface engineer Darryl Chin, 31, continues, "and seemingly always will be with e-books, is content. Give me all the books I want. Like CDs to MP3s, give me everything I can get physically, digitally."

And my favorite quote from the piece is from Rita Toews, author of several e-books and founder of the annual "Read an E-book Week" in March. She quips:

Print books, on the other hand, have their place. Nothing can replace a beautiful art book, or a book of photography. E-books are simply a different format for something we've had for hundreds of years. When penny dreadfuls were introduced in the 1800s they were scoffed at, as were paperback novels in the 1930s. Also in the 1930s, as farmers were being signed up for rural electrification, one of the most common responses was: "Why do we need electricity? We have lanterns!"

He

Update on Caravan Project Pilot

The following posting went out to schools participating in our pilot initiative with the Caravan Project. I am reposting it here due to other inquiries. The timing is also good as there was an excellent update and summary of the Caravan Project as a whole that appeared in the Shelf Awareness newsletter on Friday of last week.

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Originally distributed: Friday, 13 June, 2008

Hi everyone,

I am writing to provide an update on the Caravan pilot project. As we indicated back in late April and early May, just before our first meetings and the kickoff of the project, we learned that we would need to change the planned order of the project. This required moving the activities originally planned for late summer or fall (specifically, getting access to the digital assets) up by several months. In attempting to gain access to the Caravan digital assets other positive developments occurred.

First, one of the companies holding Caravan digital assets (OverDrive) informed us that they were not particularly interested in working with us to provide only the Caravan titles. It would be just as much work for them to provide us the 60-90 Caravan titles as it would be to provide all 60,000+ digital assets they provide. Having the larger set of titles and content to work with should make this project more robust. However, it also led us to realize that we could move up the proposed timeline on several other initiatives as well (more on that in a moment). Second, the other major company holding the Caravan digital assets (Ingram) has been less responsive. However, we have scheduled a meeting with them for the last week of June and we expect to make progress at that point. We expect their position to be similar to that of OverDrive.

These required changes in project scope, required some rethinking to determine what is best for both participating stores and the industry so that we can yield a successful result. The exploration into how to deliver the content in multiple formats, coupled with the sudden potential access to a much wider range of content options, has led us to several exciting new possibilities. In addition to the 14 stores currently participating in the pilot, over a dozen others have requested to participate in the past 6-8 weeks. Many of these inquiries would provide a broader range of participants, leading to a more robust pilot. Many of these other stores do not sell many university press titles, and thus might not gain much from the project as originally conceived. However, with access to the larger digital asset inventories, the project becomes more interesting and viable for other groups of stores to consider. In many ways, just by trying to launch the Caravan pilot project we have realized several outcomes of benefit. In addition to getting wider interest in participation than we hoped, we also found methods to provide a wider array of content via an equally wider array of delivery mechanisms and formats. It resulted in discovering a path to implementing the digital content strategy approved by the NACS Board in February that we had not foreseen as possible in the short term.

As noted above, our having access to a much, much larger set of digital assets opens up several other opportunities for this pilot project. It also speeds up several other timelines, encouraging us to rethink our direction. Following several discussions, we have a proposal going before the NACS Board at next week's meeting. If that proposal is approved, this project will take a different direction that will provide participating stores access to a wider array of digital content options, and some additional technical options and assistance. I am limited in the information I can share at this time, but following the Board meeting next Friday and Saturday I should be able to provide additional information and have a clearer indication of the direction this pilot project will go.

The developments in this project all represent positive opportunities for the pilot stores and the college store industry as a whole as it relates to digital content delivery. We are still working toward having working pilots in place by mid-to-late fall. Which direction we go with those pilots will depend somewhat on what the NACS Board decides at their meeting next week. Any stores currently participating in the Caravan pilot project will have the option of stepping out if the new direction is of less interest. As soon as I have more information to share, I will certainly be in touch. In the interim, please feel free to contact me with any questions you may have about the current or future state of this pilot project.

Addendum to prior post...

I pre-posted the earlier message. I recieved two responses though worth sharing:

Response #1:
FYI, this bill passed the Arizona House but failed in the Senate. The comments under the story are interesting, and rightly point out that the schools would still have to pay for most digital textbooks. They might not end up saving much, if anything.

My comments:
Those are important points -- people tend to assume that digital will be cheaper, but there is no guarantee. Many of the publishers I have spoke with suggest that the cost of producing digital materials (beyond the ".pdf version of traditional books") are more than those for producing traditional textbooks. Perhaps that is because the tools and skills required to develop "born digital" textbooks are not yet in great supply, and there is much research and validation to be done to verify that born digital content produces better learning outcomes. All of that takes money. Long term, perhaps digital will reduce the cost of textbooks for all -- but in the short term, that seems less likely.

Response #2:
The one phrase of Leff’s (paraphrased) I find interesting is: Computer-based learning is becoming the norm, she said, and can provide a variety of viewpoints, instead of those in just one textbook. That sounds potentially like code for slipping creationism in. Leff was involved in a bill to mandate, among other things, the following: Requires a public educational institution to permit the following activities in the same manner and to the same extent that secular activities are permitted: Prayer or engagement in religious activities or religious expression before, during, and after the school day. Admittedly a little paranoiac, but makes me wonder if we could end up seeing anti-Evolution/pro-Creation efforts masquerading as (or piggybacking on) digital curriculum legislation.

My comments:
Yet another interesting perspective. It relates to an article by Judith Shapiro that appeared in Inside Higher Education on Friday. Some of the comments in response to Judith's article are very interesting too and offer some interesting counter-points and considerations.

Program to replace textbooks in K-12

A recent article reports that a proposal made in the State of Arizona would ban printed textbooks in favor of digital or e-learning materials (when available). By moving to digital curriculums and banning traditional textbooks, new monies might be made available for computers in schools (K-12). State Senator Barbara Leff noted that, "The modern world has moved beyond textbooks." Opponents to the bill noted the continued presence of a "digital divide" and concerns that lower income students, or poorer school districts would be disadvantaged in this shift. Many other states are also experimenting with digital initiatives in the K-12 space. I just thought this piece was an interesting example of the theme and some of the issues. It could have some interesting implications for higher education, and it is a program that could be interesting to watch.

Text-to-speech for the iPod

Just an interesting technology tidbit -- Expressivo is now available for the iPod/iPod Touch -- allowing text-to-speech conversion. While the marketing materials say this is as good as the real person, it still sounds a little computer-like to me. Maybe because computers still just read the text in monotone and without the intonation and meaning embedded in the actual content. Anyway, for those who do not like to read their books, you can now have them read to you. You can learn a little more about this via the following article. Steve Jobs did say that people do not read anymore -- however, I doubt this is the final solution for delivering e-books on an Apple device. It could be an interesting add-on feature, though.

Follow-up piece on Copyright...

It seems draconian copyright protection is the norm today. I have spent a bit more time reading and researching the copyright and IP issues with the proposed Canadian bill. In doing so, I came across this article from New Zealand that came out yesterday. It references a discussion paper for an "Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement" to be discussed at an upcoming G8 meeting. I have seen a few other references to such seizure of physical devices at borders. I wonder how it will really be implemented? My personal opinion here, but it seems like there are a lot of other things countries could be spending money on when it comes to enforcement, and it is not clear what benefit will come from this. It seems like it could be used more for international espionage than protecting IP rights. As with all things, there is more than one perspective. I am sure all of this proposal is very rationale to someone, and that in the media things have become confused or less clear. Could someone point me to some documents or provide some grounded information to help illucidate some of what is happening in this space?

Proposed changes to Canadian Copyright

A new Copyright Reform bill was introduced in the Canadian Parliament yesterday. The bill updates provisions related to digital rights management, P2P file sharing, and attempts to circumvent copyright protections. In one news article posted today, I thought it was interesting that Canada's Industry Minister couched this as a "Made in Canada" bill and not a replication of US copyright efforts. I also thought the fine structure was interesting -- minimal penalties for those downloading content illegally, and more hefty fines for those who post or distribute content illegally.

Another news article on the topic points to some serious concerns about the bill. As the piece notes:

Casting aside the concerns of major business, education, and consumer groups, the bill seeks to dramatically tilt Canadian law toward greater enforcement and restrictions on the use of digital content, leading Liberal industry critic Scott Brison to warn that it could result in a "police state."

The last comparison seems a bit dramatic to me, but reading these two and a few other pieces in the last hour does suggest that the emphasis of the bill is more on enforcement and DRM, then on promoting perspectives on intellectual property (IP) and copyright that are more in sync with protecting and balancing the rights of all stakeholders. It appears Canada is moving more toward the US model.

What would it take in Canada (and perhaps the states) to bring together the various stakeholders in one room to craft a policy that protects IP rights, while also protecting other interests? I expect that the IP and DRM issues around digital content are only going to become more varied and complex in the coming decade. Such legislation seems to protect some interests and not others, and could serve to slow down technological and commercial progress. Is there a better way?

Sales of e-book readers near 1 million???

Like the environmental piece last week, I read an interesting article this week where a writer (Evan Schnittman) went out and did some old-fashioned leg work. Here is a snapshot of some of his points of evidence and/or conclusions (quoted content is in green).

Physical E-readers to top 1 Million in 2008:

• Using data from DIGITIMES, a daily news service covering the Taiwanese IT market, in a story entitled PVI EDP shipments to grow sharply in 2008, and a simple formula, the author estimated that "the annual sales of the Sony Reader are at nearly 350,000 units. Using the same formula, Amazon is ordering an average of 42,000 units per month, which will add up to over 500,000 units sold this year." The estimate is made based on data from the article indicating that 60% of the EPD’s go to Amazon and 40% go to Sony.


• With production ramping up to 120,000 units a month these numbers will look much better - to the tune of a combined 1.4 million units over 12 months! Even with the Kindle out of stock for a big chunk of the first and second quarter, combined sales of these two e-ink devices in 2008 will most likely top 1 million. If a million devices are out on the street looking to feed, and we know they primarily eat one kind of food, ebooks, then what must this mean for the ebook sales?

E-book sales on the rise as well:

• Jeff Bezos said last week that ebook sales in the Kindle store had hit 6% of book unit sales. What this means is that of the 125,000 titles available in the Kindle store, the sales of ebooks represented 6% of the sales of those same 125,000 titles in print formats. Another interesting thing that Bezos said was that Kindle buyers purchase at a rate of 2.5 times more than print book buyers… food for thought when thinking through your ebook strategy.


• Assuming that anyone who buys an e-ink ebook reader is doing so to read ebooks, lets assume that 10 ebooks a year is a reasonable purchase estimate. Using this logic, we should see 10 million ebooks purchased for these two devices in 2008. (Author does provides some background to make this estimate seem realistic and not just a SWAG).


• Using other data and estimates, the author goes on estimate $120,000,000 in ebook sales for the Kindle and the Reader in 2008, double all ebook sales in 2007.

Future e-book growth:

• Success in technology, like everything else, leads to more success. It’s not uncommon to see five-fold growth the year following a successful technology product launch. Think iPod, think Wii, think Blackberry. Whole micro-economies emerge around products that range from accelerated content creation, and all sorts of aftermarket products and services. Versions 2.0 and beyond create better and better devices. The better the devices, the more accessories, the more content there is, and soon a whole world of business opportunity is rolling downhill picking up speed. With this in mind, I can easily imagine the success of Kindle and Reader dramatically expanding next year and growing by a factor of five. If that happens, then the formula above leads to a completely new ebook economy. Five million devices would mean ebook sales of $1,200,000,000, which, by my estimation, is 1.3% of the current global book market of $90,000,000,000.

Still think e-books do not matter? A final quote from the article was perhaps my favorite, and one I will use again. Schnittman comments:

This reminds me of a comment I heard from a music industry executive at a
conference a couple of years ago. “One day there was the iPod and iTunes. The
next day 20% of our business was digital. The day after that more than 50% of
our revenues came from digital music. Yeah, we believe in digital music now.”

This year a number of stores saw digital sales hit up to 20% in some courses. Yes, that is not universally true for sure, but what will we see tomorrow? Please go ahead and read the full article. There is more data and the logic can be followed, and some of the follow-up postings are also interesting.

Knowing where the digital market share is going...

I read an article (reads like a press release) this morning about some new offerings by ebrary. ebrary is just one example of many companies in this space, but they are a good example of the types of companies college stores should be more aware of in the digital content space. They have a software-based e-reader technology and likely work with many of our campus libraries. While the article spoke mostly to new content databases being offered to the corporate community, what is of interest is what content was being offered. The articles notes:

ebrary(R) today announced the availability of two new subscription databases of e-books, manuals and other authoritative content in Engineering and Business. With contributing publishers such as Elsevier, CRC Press, Pennwell Publishing, John Wiley & Sons, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Woodhead Publishing, Gulf Publishing, and World Scientific, ebrary's new Engineering Database features popular handbooks, manuals and other technical titles spanning a wide range of engineering topics such as Aerospace, Chemical, Civil, Electrical, Electronic, Environmental, Materials, Mechanics, and Petroleum Engineering. ebrary's new Business Database covers key topics in eadership, Management, Human Resources, Sales & Marketing, Finance, Investment, Accounting, and General Business Skills from such esteemed publishers as AMACOM, Elsevier, John Wiley & Sons, Kogan-Page, Ltd., and Dearborn Trade Publishing.

Do the publishers and content areas sound familiar to to any of the college store readers of this blog? If about a third of students are getting their digital textbooks from libraries now (from the NACS 2008 StudentWatch study), then do you know what digital textbooks your library really offers? Here is an area where you can start to interact with your campus librarian. Do some background research to see what titles they may be offering, and what the readership is like. As we talk about competitive intelligence and understanding what market share we are losing (and where we are losing it), then here is a source of potential information. There may be opportunities for us to work with campus libraries and this information--and there may be opportunities for college stores to work with ebrary and similar offerings as well.

Course material content licensing by campuses is not a new phenomenon, and it is a trend that is likely to grow. Store textbook managers should be monitoring this trend closely and considering ways to work with other campus constituencies and this content.

simple thought...

Thanks to Michael von Glahn for the idea for today's post. It's an old quote, but still a good one:

"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn."

-- From "Rethinking the Future" by "Future Shock" author Alvin Toffler.

As this blog talks a lot about innovation and new developments in course materials and technology, the quote seems particularly relevant. How many of us do things because "we have always done them that way?" Change can be scary, but it can be exciting too. Sometimes you just have to take a leap of faith and innovate. (Of course, having done your homework in advance and knowing that you are not leaping blind off a cliff is not a bad idea either.)

Enjoy the Sunday! I am on my way to an ECAR/CIO Symposium in Colorado, where new ideas always seem to abound. I will post some of my take-aways from that event in the days ahead.

Technology innovation on campus

IT (or information technology for the acronymically challenged) is going to be part of the future of college stores, for better or worse. Hopefully for the better. Whether it is e-books and digital course materials, new forms of POS, new types of products and services, data analytics, websites and online transactions, or something else. For those of you who do not read the campus IT news sources, it might be time to start doing so. There are a lot of good resources out there -- such as the publications produced by EDUCAUSE, and particularly the Education Learning Initiative (ELI) and EDUCAUSE Center for Applied Research (ECAR)* units.

Another source for many interesting news stories is Campus Technology. An article by Trent Batson on innovation in higher education IT for academics or learning has some interesting implications for us in college stores. In the piece he argues for a "technology innovation unit" -- a source that is constantly trying, vetting, and implementing new solutions and constantly putting old ideas "out of business." (The last section of the article is most worth reading). In the college store industry I have met some interesting stores that have done something like this, and we are working toward more innovation along this vein as it relates to the digital content area within NACS.

While there are many other worthy sources in this area, one other place to keep your eye on is Inside Higher Ed. They have a good number of interesting articles on a range of topics, including textbooks. For example, earlier this week there was a viewpoint article on the Value of a Textbook by a faculty member at the University of Minnesota. While the article provides an interesting perspective, just as interesting are some of the responses posted to the piece. the voices of some of our customers. This particular piece is a good example of the complexity of the issues in our industry and the many different perspectives -- and some passionate feelings -- individuals have about this topic.

Looking at such other sources is an important task for top management -- as part of the strategic environmental scanning process. I have said it before, but all top managers should be spending at least one hour a day away from the "tyranny of the tactical" and thinking about strategic issues and challenges to their store and the industry. Taking such steps is a vital to organizational survival over the long term, particularly as we are poised to see some dramatic changes within the next 3-5 years across the industry.

Reading other sources like these opens the doors for college store managers to engage in conversation with other campus stakeholders as well. If you understand or can see the "pain points" or perspectives of others, then an opportunity to be part of the solution. An hour a day spent on strategic thinking or activities is well worth the investment.



* As a matter of full disclosure, I am an ECAR fellow, so I have some bias here. I think the publications produced do have value for the wider campus community, though.

Paper or Plastic?

E-books are supposed to be green, right? They are supposed to be an environmentally friendly solution to traditional print. Some colleagues from NACS sent me a really thought provoking article that appeared in the Environmental Science & Technology Journal last month. The article does a life-cycle analysis of print sources (books and newspapers) versus their electronic equivalents delivered on an e-reader. The author, Erika Engelhaupt, did some fascinating research into the topic. While a clear-cut solution to the question of "paper or plastic" was not forthcoming, I found the piece did give me something to think about in terms of assessing the short and long term environmental impacts of the two competing technologies. I thought the overall approach to the life-cycle analysis itself was quite interesting, particularly in these times where new devices (e.g., cell phones) come out so fast that many of us find ourselves moving toward increasingly shorter adoption cycles. I think Engelhaupts piece gives one a moment's pause to think about the true meaning and impact of green -- so that we might make more informed decisions, even if the answers or conclusions are not clear cut. An interesting read.

Ray Kurzweil piece

There was an interesting piece in the NY Times this week on Ray Kurzweil. Many of you have probably had the opportunity to see Ray present, or may have read his book, The Singularity is Near. He was the keynote at our Innovate conference last year. I have seen him present a few times in the past couple years and he is always fascinating -- even if the presentation itself changes little. You can see a streaming video version of his presentation through the TED videos, taken from his TED presentation in 2005. (The TED Videos are a great and interesting resource for ideas, by the way, if you have not checked them out, you should. Some of them are really fantastic).

Anyway, Ray's message is a very relevant one to those of use awaiting the future of digital books, or digital textbooks. The concept of exponential growth and adoption patterns of technology are both interesting and significant. Ray's predictive models in this area are among some of the best contrbutions to our understanding of technological innovation, in my opinion. I was at another event back in February, where the question was "how long until our iPod moment arrives?" That is a question I have brought up in this blog before. Kurzweil's law of accelerating returns suggests that it might be closer than we think. The concept can be best summarized in a phrase from Rich McDaniels' -- long time thought leader within the college store industry. I once heard him quip that "Sometimes it takes a long time for change to happen quickly." Essentially -- technological change starts out slowly, but once it takes off, it takes off far faster than anyone anticipates. It is sometimes a hard message to take in, but it is certainly one worth thinking about for a while. Consider it your strategic thought problem of the week.

Interesting future e-reader device

A colleague forwarded a video to me today on the future of the e-reader device. The video is in French, but do not be dismayed, the general premise and concepts are still quite apparent. My conversational French is quite rusty, but I was able to get by and get some interesting ideas from the video even with "mute."

The video can be found at Editis and is entitled "Possible ... ou Probable." You can access it from the link by selecting "voir la video" via either a high speed (streaming téléchargement rapide) or low speed (streaming téléchargement plus lent) format. The video runs about 10 minutes in length.

Some of the interesting segments are when the gentleman was able to scan the e-book over the regular book at the bookstore and then check out at the register. The interactive travel guide they were using via the e-book was also very cool -- in part because it appeared to be location aware.

How long until this type of technology is reality?

-M

Upcoming Webinars

There are a couple upcoming webinars coming up that might interest a few readers of this blog.

10 Tips for Using Digital Book Technologies to Drive Sales and Create New Consumer Experiences. This webinar is being presented by Book Business on Thursday June 19 at 2pm EDT. The speaker is Malle Vallik, Director of Digital Content and Interactivity for Harlequin Enterprises, Ltd. I have heard Malle speak a couple times at IDPF meetings and she is always interesting, in my opinion. Some of the things Malle is doing in the digital space at Harlequin are very innovative. The program for the webinar sounds interesting, and if you can't make it on the 19th, it will be available via archive for about 3 months. You can find more information, and register online, by following this link.

Digital Content and Educator Practices--Are Publishers Prepared? While oriented towards publishers, the description for this webinar sounds like it will be relevant to college stores as well. As part of the session they are expected to be discussing a research report on "the state of digital content in America's schools (2007-2008). The session is expected to cover both what is happening in K-12 with digital content, and how publishers are adapting to changing technologies. From an environmental scanning and competitive intelligence perspective the session should be informative. This webinar will be held on June 13, 2008 from 12-1;30 EDT. While the other webinar is free, this one has a $249 registration fee per location. You can find more information by following this link.

Photonic beetles of all things!

Okay, I have been in a real "stretch my mind with some new thoughts" mode lately. My last few posts are probably showing some of that. Former students of mine are always sending me little news clippings and stories about different emerging technologies or ideas that they find interesting or that remind them of some topic we discussed in class. One of them sent me a recent article from Wired Magazine about photonic beetles. Okay, maybe this posting is the sign that I really need to take a vacation -- or at least a full weekend off from work -- but stick with me for a moment. There is a relevant thought here.

So the article is about how for decades scientists have been trying to create new forms of computer chips based on light (more accurately called photonic crystals), but have failed. "Enter a beetle known as Lamprocyphus augustus," the articles notes. Apparently through evolution this bettle has ended up with the perfect molecular configuration to produce the photonic effect researchers have been seeking. If they are successful, the next generation of optical computing technology could do in a second what currently takes computers days or weeks to perform. The discovery was made by "sheer luck" because an undergraduate student had studied iridescent beetles as part of an high school science project.

So what is the relevance of this story to this blog? It is an interesting example of innovation and the payoff that can come from experimentation. It is also an example of how we need to share ideas with others, pull our customers into the problem solving process, and be open to new ideas and perspectives. You never know where the next great idea might come from, but if you are not open minded or willing to look -- even at the ideas that seem somewhat crazy -- then potential breakthroughs like the photonic beetle may pass you by.

Recent WSJ articles

There were a couple interesting articles over the past week that appeared in the Wall Street Journal. The first was an article by Gordon Crovitz on The Digital Future of Books. I thought it was a pretty interesting piece that questioned how the change in communications media might change the way we communicate, with potential to change the nature of the written word. In one passage he writes,

Aristotle lived during the era when the written word displaced the oral
tradition, becoming the first to explain that how we communicate alters what we
communicate. That's for sure. It's still early in the process of a digital
rhetoric replacing the more traditionally written word. It's already an open
question whether constant email and multitasking leaves us overloaded humans
with the capability to handle longer-form writing.

How we communicate alters what we communicate. I heard not long ago that the invention of page numbers did not occur until nearly 40 years after the creation of the book. Today we can not imagine a book or other forms of the printed word not having something as obvious as page numbers. So why should we imagine that books will remain the same with a communication medium like the Internet and all it offers?

The question I think many of us grapple with is what we (or the next generation) will communicate given how the Internet changes communication. In yet another passage, Crovitz notes:

The book introduced a disciplined way of thinking about topics, organized
around contents pages, indexing, citation and bibliography. These are at the
root of Web structure as well. One theme for the next annual Conference on the
Book is that the digital experience could simply be an evolution: "The
information architecture of the book, embodying as it does thousands of years'
experience with recorded knowledge, provides a solid grounding for every
adventure we might take in the new world of digital media.

Crovitz ends his piece on a note of hope that technology may return us to the written word in a new way, breathing new life into words and their meaning.

Not long after Crovitz's piece, there was a rebuttal article by Jason Epstein that also appeared in the WSJ. In the rebuttal, Epstein paints a different view, suggesting that print-on-demand will be the more likely path of digital books rather than reading on a screen. That is quite possibly true while we continue to digitize content and think about stories in a linear way. Perhaps that is why it took 40 years to come up with page numbers -- because we needed a generation or two to grow up with a new technology in order to view it differently. Perhaps the great novel of the next generation will be a video game -- interactive and complex storylines that play out some of the universal stories and themes that underlie much of the traditional literature base. I know, I know, it sounds like heresy -- but maybe in 40 years there will be a development in video game storytelling where people will wonder why we told stories or passed on knowledge in any other way. It will be as obvious to them as page numbers are to us, or so it will seem.

Anyway, I thought the two articles were both interesting reads and provided some thoughts to chew on. Good strategic thinking and innovation both require thinking about future possibilities. These two pieces could serve as a good catalyst for such a discussion.

New startups

I always find start-up companies interesting. The thrill of innovation and entrepreneurship. The birth of an idea foist upon the market that may or may not yet be ready. I have worked with a fair number of startups over the years, helping them evaluate their business plans or providing feedback on their direction. Some have made it, and made it big. Others, well, let's just say they had ideas whose time had not yet come.

I commented in this blog recently about one startup, Flat World Knowledge. The founders of that company were nice enough to come to Albany to meet with me, and I have to say, I came away impressed. The more I came to understand the company and their aims, the more it helped some of my thinking about what open access and the future of stores and textbook content could be. They are a company I hope to keep in contact with going forward and I am looking forward to their product releases over the next year.

Recently I have had the opportunity to see two other start-ups that are also interesting in their own way. The first is Polar Mobile. They have an interesting technology for taking publisher content and moving it onto mobile devices. They plan to focus on the higher education market and I see some real promise in their technology. I am not convinced that mobile technology is the solution for all kinds of content, but there is certainly some types of content we could (and perhaps should) be delivering via this format. Since a story months ago about how Starbucks and Apple are working together for downloading music through the stores, I have been interested in how we might use similar technologies. Having seen their product demonstrated, this could be a company to work with and explore further some possibilities. It would be very interesting to see them connect with the right partners.

Another company I have met with a couple times now is Intellidemia, which was founded by some RPI alums. Intellidemia hopes to address some of the shortcomings they see in the traditional course management systems by starting from a fresh angle... the syllabus, and a desire for ease of use. They are also heavily focused on integrating calendars that cross boundaries in educational institutions, so that students, faculty, and institutions can manage time and calendars more effectively. Administrative concerns like accreditation activities and other analytics are high on the watch list. With the current players in the course management system market Intellidemia will have a tough row to till... however, they do have some interesting ideas about the technology design. I am curious to watch the company and its development going forward.

Some stats of interest

Due to some expressions of interest -- here is a brief 1-page industry trends update I wrote recently for some internal documents. I have a pretty hectic travel schedule this month, so I will apologize in advance for having fewer postings to the blog throughout June. July onward is looking like far less travel so I should be able to do a little better then on regular and frequent postings. I will note that some of the stats below are ones that I have commented on in the past. I am posting the combined set here due to a couple recent requests.

-------------------------


The digital landscape is changing rapidly, however, digital book sales are still quite small as a percentage of unit sales and revenue. The industry emphasis when it comes to digital should be on providing choice for students and preserving market share for stores. There is plenty of evidence out there to suggest that now is the time for the industry to position itself within the digital landscape.

In the general book industry we are seeing a continued uptrend in e-book sales. At the recent D6 conference, Amazon announced that for the 125,000 titles sold on the Kindle, 6% of the unit sales for those titles were sold in digital rather than print. According to figures tracked by the International Digital Publishing Forum (IDPF), digital e-book sales for March, 2008 were up over 58% compared to the prior year. The IDPF figures are based on only trade e-book sales via wholesale channels for 12-15 trade publishers. The organization estimates that actual e-book sales could be as much as double their figures. The graphic below, provided by IDPF, shows the trend over the past five years.
For textbook adoption we are also seeing several data points that signify an uptick in e-book purchases. While 18 months ago the big concern was iChapters and direct to student sales, e-book sales were still very low, typically below 1% of units and revenue. This semester we saw multiple examples of e-textbook sales over that 1% threshold—examples that begin to move beyond the anecdotal. In one pilot involving six classes at one institution, average adoption was 10% of enrollment and anywhere from 3% to 45% of total units sold (any format) in a class. In another set of pilots at two institutions project coordinators were able to get over 90% of students enrolled in the course to select the digital textbook option. Recently, one institution found that when they offered first year students a digital option among pre-ordering choices prior to the start of the semester, 20% of those students selected the e-book when it was available. Another institution reported similar numbers with over 10% of students enrolled in courses selecting digital where available. Other anecdotal examples with adoptions over 30% of unit sales are becoming increasingly common. In a few studies we have seen that roughly 18% of students prefer digital textbooks to print textbooks, with another 7-8% of students expressing no preference. In the most recent StudentWatch study sponsored by the NACS Foundation roughly 18% of students bought or accessed digital course materials this year. These figures show a trend in adoption that is likely to continue growing over the next few years as incoming students become increasingly technically sophisticated and comfortable.
Interestingly, when students were asked where they acquired their digital course materials, 33% indicated the library, 30% the college store, 25% the campus course management system (e.g., Blackboard, WebCT, Angel, Moodle, etc.), and 10% indicated other direct sales sites (e.g., direct from publisher, Freeload Press, etc.). This number should be disconcerting to college stores as it suggests erosion in market share when it comes to digital course materials. Stores are not thought of as the first source for digital textbooks. Indeed, this is perhaps not surprising when only 46% of the Large Stores Group members report offering a digital option to students, and a comparable percentage of college stores in general report being unable to handle an online transaction. These figures and trends, coupled with many other industry developments make it imperative for the industry and NACS to find a solution that ensures the college store’s place in digital textbooks.

Stores that wait another 3 to 5 years before entering this market may find it too late to recover lost market share or declining profits from course materials. Indeed, in Ohio there is a mandate under review that would require all colleges and universities in the state of Ohio to reduce textbook costs to students by 50% within the next 1 to 2 years. Digital is expected to play a key role in the solutions that are adopted. IDC estimates that the e-learning materials market will continue to grow by roughly 25% or more in the U.S. for each of the next two years. The inability of the industry to credibly support the sale and distribution of digital textbooks is a contributing factor to the pursuit of other channels (such as direct institutional licensing) by publishers. It is also contributing to other new players entering the market, which may soon include companies like Apple and Microsoft. In a sense, by not pursuing digital options, stores are creating their own competition and encouraging both students and publishers to find other ways to exchange products and services.

Perhaps I have painted too glum a picture or been overly assertive in my position here for the college stores reading this blog, but perhaps tough love is sometimes a necessity. Consider it another of my ongoing wake-up calls. At NACS we are working on several initiatives to be unveiled later this summer that will address the concerns about market share and the trade infrastructure among college stores. Our aim is to provide an easy and affordable way for stores to become more actively involved in digital content sales and distribution. We have a number of pilots either in progress or in the design phase. We are still looking for partners in that process -- both on the content and interface sides of the equation. The signs appear to be getting clearer all of the time. If you are a college store reading this blog, what are some interesting or innovative ideas you have tried lately in the digital area? Please share.

Big News coming at Innovate 2008...

It is a bit early to confirm yet, but we are expecting some big news to be announced at this year's Innovate 2008 conference. The conference will be held in Minneapolis on July 11-12, a much cooler location in July than Tampa -- host of the first Innovate conference in 2007. This year's program has a great lineup of sessions. This year's focus is more on retail technologies, but there will be some sessions on digital content as well. Last year's sessions by Ray Kurzweil and Jim Carroll were fantastic, and will be hard to beat, but I think we have some great speakers lined up again this year. We also added more networking opportunities and changed the workshop format -- all in response to feedback from last year. In the next couple weeks I will post some more detailed information about some of the sessions expected at the conference. It is shaping up to be a great event and the expected news release will make for another good reason to attend.

Branch Office...

It is a holiday weekend here in the states. I am traveling for work at the moment, but this recent comic in Being Five was worth sharing. Those of you who telecommute as I do will probably enjoy this one.

Another e-reader...

E-readers continue to enter the market, with different innovations -- and prices. I recently came across an article on another blog about the Astak e-book reader. They call it the "E-book Mentor." Price will be low (starting about $150 for the low-end model, $350 for the high-end model) with the now-standard e-ink display for such devices. The interface looks a bit simple, somewhat more like a palm reader. There will be three different sizes, and a variety of features, including wifi and a touch screen. There are pictures and more spec info available through the above link, or from Astek at their product page. The one thing I note is that it does not look like the book supports many content formats. Maybe they need to partner with other content providers? It is interesting to see the product variation on a theme and to see how common features are emerging among the e-reader options. As content inventory improves it will be interesting to watch what features emerge next. Moving beyond the limited number of shades of gray currently available is a key next step in my opinion -- that will be necessary to make the devices a good tool for textbooks or e-books with more complex charts, graphs, or pictures.

Tracking the origins of digital content

Just a small news clip today...

There was a piece on tracking the origins of digital content in Information Week recently. Tim-Berners-Lee won one of several grants, and his work will focus on developing a mechanism to determine the origins of a piece of content. I saw some other presentations not long ago focused on how to remove the anonymity from the web. Being able to authenticate who is contributing or generating content (or who is using it) is important from a remuneration perspective. I seem to recall some other projects working on this problem too -- ACAP maybe, with their interest in being able to track who is using the content produced by publishers, such as photos from People Magazine? Maybe this is more of the direction of future DRM -- remove anonymity and it becomes easier to track, but at what cost to society? Some of the comments to the article (particularly the first couple) are worth thinking about.

Digital Book 2008

Finally, the customer is king at last -- or at least an heir to the throne. Publisher's Weekly published a good article on last week's Digital Book 2008 (IDPF) meeting. Once again, I missed this meeting due to presentations at another event. The Publisher's Weekly makes some important observations worth calling to the attention of readers of this blog. For example:

Publishers and technology developers sounded the same note over and over again, pointing out that the Internet has given them unprecedented access to consumer feedback, and that the way to grow the e-book market is to listen to what readers are saying.

While all the speakers seemed to agree that the book business has a long way to go before readers are as familiar and comfortable with digital books as they are with paper books, it was also clear that publishers see rapid growth in the digital book market and that the format is becoming an increasingly important part of their business.

"You have to get out there and experiment" noted Malle Vallik, director of Digital Content and Interactivity at Harlequin, and arguably one of the most innovative players in digital content and publishing. I have seen Malle present a few times now and always walk away with a new idea and wondering why "more publishers and stores don't do things that way." I hope to incorporate some of the ideas I have learned from her in one of the new big initiatives we have planned for this year at NACS.

To the point though -- there seems to be growing agreement that digital's time is coming. This means stores (and publishers) alike must begin, continue, and expand our experimentation with digital AND listen to our customers.

CourseSmart partners with Ingram Digital Ventures

Just a quick note today --

In a non-surprising, but notable news release last week, CourseSmart announced Ingram Digital Ventures (IDV) will provide the platform for delivering their e-textbook collection. For anyone not familiar with educational publishing these days, CourseSmart is a company founded by six of the largest higher education textbook publishers (now five, since Cengage bought Hougton Mifflin). IDV is a division within Ingram, and provides a range of services -- VitalSource and Lightning Source being among perhaps the more common IDV companies familiar to college stores.

The partnership adds to the scalability of the e-textbook solution CourseSmart will be able to provide to the market. One interesting aspect of this arrangement is that IDV will "provide a customized e-book reader application to enrich CourseSmart eTextbooks with interactive functionalities." Given that another IDV company, VitalSource, is in the same business, it is a curious, or at least interesting, development. It will be interesting to see how similar or different the two e-reader environments are at the end of the day. The end result should provide benefit to consumers.

Some fun videos

Cheers to the Mizzou University (University of Missouri) bookstore for some fun youtube videos. The videos spoof the Mac vs PC videos by Apple showing students who buy from the college store versus the Internet.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=92gGhIb7g2Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgzyzGBSry4&NR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwQX3va4Yqo
http://youtube.com/watch?v=DtkZUHIbt20
http://youtube.com/watch?v=XtYtjsasVfY

It's Monday, so pop a bag of popcorn and prepare to enjoy about 5-10 minutes of spoof videos.

Enjoy!
M

IBS announces results of London book fair survey

Many of you probably already saw this piece, but I have been traveling and am behind on my reading. About a month ago IBS announced the results of the survey of publishers it conducted at the 2008 London Book Fair. A short synopsis of key findings is available online. Here are some of what I found to be more interesting points:

• Most publishers support authors right to digital download royalties, but most have no mechanism to manage the payment of those royalties.
• Nearly 4/5ths of publishers believed they should be allowed to sell directly to consumers, and 56% said they already are!
• 89% said they believe there is still very much a place for bookstores.
• 83% believe consumers will fully accept e-book readers.
• Academic titles were considered to be among the most likely areas where e-books will be used

The ending quote is also telling,

This survey has shown that publishers are very much moving towards the modern
digital world. [...] However, there are still plenty that do not have any
systems in place at all for online sales and these publishers need to rapidly
re-think their strategy if they are to succeed in the modern high-tech future of
the publishing industry.

The same could be said for many booksellers. An interesting article though with some equally interesting findings. I think it would be interesting to see the full set of data they collected .... something worth tracking down.

An interesting address...

I read an interesting short article on a recent address by Random House chair and CEO Gail Rebuck on digitization and the future of books and ebooks. Rebuck's comments are relevant to the college store industry and re-emphasizes (in my opinion) the opportunities that stores and publishers have if we work together. That may require a little more open mindedness on both of our sides, but the opportunities are there.

A couple quotes from the article that I found particularly interesting:

- On the topic of online sales, Rebuck said that publishers' opportunities to sell direct to consumers via their own websites were intrinsically limited.

- "Consumers are not interested in publishing company brands; people buy books because of the author or topic, not because it is published by Random House, but because it is written by John Grisham or Jacqueline Wilson. Only aggregating sites such as Amazon or Waterstones.com can offer the range a serious book buyer is looking for."

These are interesting comments for us in the college store industry and offer some insight into the strategic direction we are headed in this space. More on that in the months to come...

The full text of Rebuck's talk is also available for reading. I think it is a well-crafted address, with a nice storyline and several interesting points. I found the discussion of the stages of digitization, along with her discussions of how technology is and will radically change publishing and bookselling, while still leaving some of the core elements particularly interesting. It is worth the read if you have the time.

Experimenting Pays Off

I missed the BISG "Making Information Pay" seminar last Friday, but heard that it was very good from a couple of attendees. An article on one of the panels appeared in Publisher's Weekly over the weekend. The panel's focus was on how experimentation with digital is paying off for a group of organizations -- including a college store. At this stage of innovation and emerging technology -- particularly with a radical change visible on the horizon, a few things are critical to future organizational success for both publishers and stores.

First, experimentation. Experimentation keeps us moving forward, allows us to figure out what works and what does not work, helps us identify new opportunities, and helps mitigate future costs. Organizations that are risk adverse can start with small experiments. The point is to try something new. Experimentation is an important process in helping organizations adapt to change.

Second, share our knowledge. By sharing our knowledge we can better leverage the risks embedded in our experiments. We can learn from each other and instead of repeating each other's errors, we can create new ones.

Third, partner. Again, in periods of rapid technological or environmental change, the survivors are most likely to be those who develop effective networks of strategic partnerships. By partnering with others we can identify collaborative opportunities to experiment, further reducing the cost and risk involved with experimentation.

Fourth, measure. As Rich McDaniels says, Measure what Matters. It is critical that we establish goals and measure our progress toward those goals. What good is an experiment if we do not know the effect. I used to do a lot of performance management work when I was in management consulting, and have taught classes on the topic as a faculty member. The skinny is that measurement helps us determine what worked and what did not work -- enabling us to get a much greater ROI for money and time spent in experimentation.

The panelists at the BISG panel appear to represent all four of these ideas. Experimentation is something I have been pushing at stores since arriving in this position 3 years ago this week. For example, all stores should be experimenting with selling digital textbooks at this point. Even if sales are currently low, they will not always remain so. Try marketing the content in a different way, or delivering it in a different way. Did that affect sales? Waiting to even try digital will reduce sales in the future as others establish market share and mind share in what is the traditional domain of publishers and the college store. There are lots of opportunities out there for those who look, partner, and are willing to experiment.

Next generation of college kids

The NACS' Environmental Scan Think Tank (ESTT) held one of our regular meetings recently. We do so about three times a year, roughly 6-8 weeks before each board meeting. For this session we each did some background research and reading to look at trends and developments in the K-12 space that could affect college stores in the future. A difficult task, since things are changing so quickly these days. As I was preparing to start typing up the notes from our meeting, I came across the following NY Times article on virtual worlds in the"tween" space. It is an interesting article about an emerging technology and the kids that use it. The main child in the article is only 10 years old. What will it mean to us when kids like this enter college more en mass, perhaps in just a few short years? What steps should we take now to prepare? I have some thoughts -- but what are yours?

Strategic thinking and planning takes time, and college stores should be taking some time every day to think strategically. I have heard a few interesting stories lately from different stores and some of the things they are doing. UCLA's bookstore recently created a "Course Materials Strategist" position to think more about what is ahead. I think that is an excellent move. I have helped a few other college stores rethink the job description for their textbook manager as well. We have lots of opportunities out there, but if we are not doing the environmental scanning and strategic thinking about the implications, then the odds that we will be the ones to capitalize on those opportunities is fairly slim. Just something to think about on a Monday.

Digital Pen and Paper

In David Pogue's State of the Art column last week he introduced an interesting gadget -- a digital pen. What is cool about the device is that it can record audio while taking notes like a ball-point pen. It requires special paper (the real downside), but if you tap the pen against a prior set of notes, it will recall the audio recorded when the notes were taken. Of course the audio and printed notes can be uploaded into the computer and all the other normal things we would expect. Of course, this is just the first generation of this technology, but one could easily imagine the uses it might be put towards once it matures a little and gets coupled with some other tech devices or capabilities. The video segment on the column web page is worth watching (at about 4 minutes in length). It earned a "very cool" from me -- yet another gadget to think about -- "boys and their toys" as the saying goes. I could see some real uses for students in the classroom though. Perhaps integrated with a clicker?

Just a cool emerging technology to think about on a Monday afternoon.

A New Life for Out of Print with POD

An interesting article appeared last week in the UK's Guardian. The article talks about how POD (print-on-demand) may help consumers and publishers alike by enabling access to books no longer in print. One of the lessons we seem to be learning about POD, which this article reinforces, is that it works well for fairly small runs, but breaks down with larger runs. The article does a good job of presenting different POD initiatives and some of their impact within the marketplace. Thanks to long-tail economics, niche titles have a marketable value again. For stores, this may represent opportunities to reduce costs or generate revenue from lower-number print runs. The article also cites some other popular POD developments and players, such as Lightning Source, Amazon, and Lulu. At NACS we are about to launch a taskforce to further explore some of the recent opportunities presented the association to implement POD at the store level. Since not every store can afford an espresso high-speed book printer, we are looking at and for some different options, including some regionalized POD models. In doing so we hope to reduce material costs for students, support environmental sustainability efforts, and, ensure a place for stores in an increasingly complex content environment.

New iRex iLiad Book Edition

In a press release e-mailed to me and many others today, IRex announced a new book edition of their e-reader, available for sale later this week. Unlike the current IRex iLiad reader, the new reader will not have the built-in WiFi module, which they have used to be able to download news papers. All other features will be the same. The cost is expected to be 499 Euros, which will price it out of being competitive in a US market where both the Kindle and the Sony reader are available for under US$400.

Some other new readers are expected on the market later this year. I think I am content to wait and upgrade mine once the next round of innovative devices hits the market. Although, I may have to break down and ask for a Kindle later this year. I like my Sony Reader now that I have gotten use to it, but the wireless aspect of the Kindle is attractive. If I bought a Kindle I would want to be able to share books across the two devices so that my wife could use one and we could trade books as we often do when we finish reading them.

Online testing and study aids...

There have been a couple news stories lately about online testing and study aids for students. Two in particular seem to be getting some attention: ACETheExam.com and Flat World Knowledge.

ACETheExam
ACETheExam was announced in a press release earlier this week. It is a new initiative by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt to offer students practice exams in four popular courseareas: Intro Psych, US History, Principles of Economics and General Chemistry. In brief, the tool allows students to buy self-scoring practice exams made up of 15-20 questions that cover key topics in the course, drawn from a typical textbook. When I taught as a faculty member, this is the type of content students used to get for "free" as part of the "add-ons" that came with textbooks. It may be a publisher strategy though to reduce the cost of traditional textbooks and make more money off of the ancilliaries, since many states and students are pushing for a separation of the add-ons from the traditional texts.

Given the current state of technology, I expected this tool do more than just self-score quizzes at 5-6 cents per question. The SAT exam prep tools by ETS might be a good model to look at. If you get an answer wrong, it may ask you more questions, and then take you to lessons to explain the concepts. Such an approach allows for more self-directed learning. Perhaps I am a bit idealistic, but in the end, shouldn't it be about learning and not just the test? Perhaps when several people pushed me the link on this new development I was expecting a bit more.

Flat World Knowledge
Flat World Knowledge (FWK) is another group that has been getting a lot of press lately. Thanks, perhaps in large part, to the press stories coming out of the Student PIRGS lately that focus on open source textbooks. I have received a good number of e-mails on stories about FWK, and several requests for my opinion. The marketing certainly has been interesting, with the cute stick-figure videos. The real product does not come out to 2009, however. I have not seen the actual product yet, and screenshots are not enough to quel my ingrained faculty cynicism, so it is difficult to assess the real quality.

That said, I do have to admit that I like some of the basic elements of the business model -- faculty pick the content, students pick the format. This is an idea I have pushed for a while now. We are working on some initiatives to do the same. The faculty are a barrier though. Some of the student data I have seen suggests that students are afraid (for lack of a better word) to buy textbooks in a format other than what the faculty member is using. This is changing, and faculty are becoming more sensitive to textbook prices (and their role in causing textbook prices to increase). Faculty really have to be won over though. Solving that puzzle is critical.

It is interesting that they plan to give the digital away for free, but then charge if students want other formats. Their site explains:

We then turn around and sell things of value to that large market – more
convenient ways to consume our free book (print, audio, PDF) and efficient ways
to study (study aids). Sure, we’ll make less money per student than the big
guys. But that’s okay. We’ll be selling to a lot more of them, and we’ll be
doing it for a lot less money (thanks to technology like web-hosted services,
XML, print-on-demand, and more). Like we said… just a smarter way to do
business. For all of us.

So here is the dilemma. Most students do not currently like digital versions of textbooks. While there appear to be no statistical difference in student outcomes when they use the digital versus the print, students do report greater eye fatigue with current delivery options. This gets coupled with the digital divide problem -- students who can make best use of the digital option are typically the more economically well-positioned, because they have better access to computing technology, higher quality displays, and are more likely to have had more exposure and experience with technology -- allowing them to be more comfortable with the digital option. Thus, students who need the lower cost option most, the socio-economically disadvantaged, are likely to have to rely on the traditional media more. So the dilemma is that poorer students still have to pay more to get content in the format that best matches their needs, experience, and access to technology.

That said, there is no perfect solution to this problem out there. We are working to solve this problem too, and our solution will also have its problems. As the Japanese saying goes, "nothing is so good that it cannot be improved." While it means competition for us, in my opinion FWK is a good step forward for the course materials industry as it will help further test out models where the content and the format are separated. FWK, like AceTheExam, will charge for access to study guides (and likely other ancilliaries), further emphasizing the split among pieces of content. It will also test out some new business models to reduce costs that could work to the whole industry's advantage -- such as print-on-demand.

Bottom Line:
While it means competition for us, FWK's business model also represents opportunity. By separating the content and the format, I also see opportunities for FWK to work with college stores. Our paired strengths may create a greater win-win for students and institutions than separate initiatives. There are advantages for a company like FWK to work with college stores -- and for college stores to work with FWK. Both sides have some unique advantages. Anyone from FWK reading this note who might want to have a discussion?

Thank you for coming...

Just a quick note to say thanks to everyone for reading the blog. This week there were readers from every continent (except Antartica), well over a dozen different countries, and 31 of the 50 states (US). If there are particular topics or questions you would like me to address, please feel free to post a comment or drop me a note.

-M

An interesting observation....

I spoke with the business development folks attached to the Kindle at Amazon this past week. Our second such call. Those conversations are always quite interesting. An observation was made this week that I found quite interesting -- and provides a good lesson in design for all of us as we think about technology and the next generation. Here is how the story goes...

Gettysburg College recently used the Kindle in the classroom. As part of that experiment, they conducted an end-of-the-semester focus group with the students from the class. One of the student observations was that they had a hard time searching the digital content to find particular passages or information they were looking for. One of the focus group observers asked the students why they did not use the search button at the bottom of the device. The students essentially asked, "Search button? Where's that?" The students reported that they did not use the buttons so much and were more inclined to use the menus. This was apparently different from how adults their parents age used the device -- relying more on buttons than menus.

Just an interesting observation. Make of it what you will. As we look at digital course materials though, we should keep in mind who is using it and that their expectations are likely to be quite different from ours.

Tech Talk at the Times

I have been following a new service from the New York Times lately. Well, maybe not new, but new to me -- and interesting too. I follow a lot of news feeds from many sources, but the NYT now has a daily posting of technology news. Actually, I find the redesign of the NYT site as a whole to be quite pleasing. I like how I can create "My Times" and add in the elements that are of interest to me -- much like the services that Google and others have provided for some time. the piece I like best, though, is being able to have the technology news sent to me in a digital newspaper format every day. I do not have a lot of time to read the paper, and my local paper does not cover much technology news. I have found the daily Technology News from the Times to have many stories of interest that I have not seen pop up in other channels, or that do not do so until days later. Here is a sampling of some of the stories lately that I found interesting:

At Kodak, Some Old Things Are New Again -- an interesting story on digital's role today at Kodak, the company that created the digital camera, and then essentially shelved the concept to avoid hurting their traditional core of film sales. (Sound like there is a lesson in there for some other traditional industries???) While just a fraction of who they used to be in the past, today Kodak is producing a number of new innovations. How they are transforming the company, and some of the technologies they have in their pocket are truly fascinating. The story is an interesting lesson on organizational re-evaluation and change.

Amazon Sues Over State Law on Collection of Sales Tax. This is an interesting and important case to watch from the digital course materials perspective. As course materials move digital, there have already been questions as to whether sales tax is collected or not. A number of states use sales tax to fund education. However, if in-state businesses must collect state sales tax, while out-of-state businessses do not, in-state economies and businesses are put at risk. While this article does tackle the course materials topic directly, it is a case to watch as it could set some precedence for future cases that are likely to arise that hit closer to home.

Informal Style of Electronic Messages Is Showing Up in Schoolwork, Study Finds -- We have all seen the jokes about the "new language" that has emerged in the texting generation. Now it is finding its way into homework. I have met kids who know how to keyboard (or type as we used to call it) but never really learned how to write in cursive. An interesting piece on how the next generation to enter the college classroom is different from the past. Different is not necessarily bad, but it will increase pressure to find ways to communicate across the culture gap.

There are many more stories of interest as well, but the above sampling might give you an idea of what I am talking about. NYT also started a Tech Talk podcast about a month ago (I think, based on the archives). That also provides an interesting summary of some of the news stories from the week. Easy to download to my ipod and listen to on the plane.

Video the New Textbook?

I read an interesting piece this morning about NBC's new iCue. The iCue site name comes from Immerse, Connect, Understand, and Excel and is targeted towards high school students. It will include things like study guides for AP courses in history, politics, English and other topics. More interestingly, it will allow students to "stockpile" video clips, and then annotate and share the content in a very "Web 2.0" kind of way.

The NBC executive behind the initiative said the initiative is based on the premise that "video will replace the textbook." An interesting concept. It is worth noting that in another piece
from last summer Cisco identified two trends in K-12 they saw as significant for education. One of those was the dramatic increase in the use of digitally downloadable video for use in the classroom.

The concept of video as the textbook may be taking things a bit far, but perhaps not too far. The future will likely be more interactive media -- or true multi-media. Video will certainly be a significant part of that. It also brings another new set of players into the course materials content market. This perspective is echoed again in the first article where the author reports: NBC tried to find a way to work on the project with textbook publishers but couldn't find common ground, he says, adding that textbook publishers have held a virtual monopoly over educational materials. Change is certainly in the air.

We are seeing many new content producers and content aggregators entering the field of educational materials -- and digital delivery is lowering the barriers to entry. An explosion of content providers will not necessarily make things easier or better for faculty and students. What we need is a way to aggregate the aggregators in an effective way, that allows for rating and evaluating the quality of the content being contributed, and which enables easier content discovery. That is the role college stores and campus libraries have played in the past. How might we work together to fill that role again in the future?

Sorry for the silence, more postings soon

Hi everyone,

Sorry -- I have been traveling for much of the past couple weeks and have a few other priority projects that came up. I will have some more postings to contribute soon. Probably tonight if the hotel connection is good. Some of the topics I have to post on include open source textbooks, and some of the student comments regarding e-textbooks from the most recent EDUCAUSE student study. We are working on analyzing that data now for the main report (due out later this year), but I will give a sneak peak into a small set of those comments here soon. I also received a couple questions from some of you reading this blog (nice to know some folks are actually reading it). I will try to address some of those in the next few days as well. Next week I have no travel, so hope to catch up with a number of new postings.

-M

Something to read if you have time...

Okay, I have posted quite a few items this week, but I will be having to post from the road much of the next two weeks, which is always a bit more difficult to fit into my schedule.

To tide you over, here is a mildly lengthy, but informative piece on the Kindle worth reading. Yes, I know, yet another piece about the Kindle. What makes this piece a little different is that it does an interesting job of summarizing many of the other pieces out there on the Kindle. Sort of a meta-review of reviews.

Enjoy!

News from OhioLINK's eText program

I do not recall off-hand if I have posted information on OhioLINK's eText program previously, but this is an initiative to watch. The eText Project is similar to California State University's Digital Marketplace, which emphasizes affordability, accessibility and choice for students. The OhioLINK program is focused on affordability and the affect on student outcomes.

OhioLINK's initiative has been very interesting. I have not found a good weblink with more information about the program, although here is a link to a related news story. We have been in discussions with their program leaders since first becoming aware of the initiative over a year ago. However, things have been heating up lately, with pressure from Chancellor Fingerhut's office and new pending legislation that would mandate e-books at colleges and universities across Ohio. The first such legislation we are aware of to date.

Using an experimental design, Ohio's first semester pilots demonstrated no difference in student classroom outcomes based on the use of digital or print course materials. The digital materials appear to be less expensive, but the model looks more like digital rental than digital ownership. With successful first round pilots completed, and more underway, Ohio moves ahead of California in terms of providing a digital content solution for the higher education classroom environment. So, as Ohio goes, so too may go the rest of the country, as many states are certainly watching this initiative very closely, as are we.

There will be a symposium in a few weeks (Apr 29th) held in Columbus where OhioLINK and the Chancellor's plans will be discussed in greater detail. Several college stores and NACS have been invited to attend and participate. There does appear to be genuine interest in having the stores be part of the final solution. That, of course, requires stores to step up to the plate, and quickly. Several stores have already done so, and this initiative will affect nearly all college stores operating in the state of Ohio over the next few years -- whether public, private or contract managed.

More news and information on this topic will appear in future postings.

Digital Content, IP and the Case of Georgia

One of the more interesting headlines in the past week is the story about alleged intellectual property rights violations at Georgia State University. More details on that case can be found in an article that appeared Wednesday in Insider Higher Education. Many of the responses to the article are as interesting (or more so) than the article itself. Another article on this case appears in this week's Campus Marketplace.

Of interest here is the application of copyright and intellectual property protection for digital course materials. It reminds me of the P2P or "Napster-like" piracy cases of music in the last decade. The authors, creators, and producers of content deserve to be properly recompensed for their work. At the same time, there is immense pressure to reduce the cost of content for students.

How many institutions across the country have the same or similar breaches over IP protection on their campus? What exactly is fair use in a digital context? More importantly, how do we work together to maximize the benefits and minimize the driving factors leading to this conflict of values: protecting IP versus making education affordable? As course materials become increasingly digital it also becomes increasingly important for us to resolve these and other questions. I can foresee this conversation getting even more muddy with open source textbooks, since most textbooks and course material content relies on getting permission clearance for the inclusion of images, text, or content. As we saw in the YouTube situation -- when is a "mashup" of content really something new, versus a violation of IP? Add to that the potential to reduce cost to students and the problem gets more complex yet.

This is an area that would benefit further discussion that includes a wider range of stakeholders. Perhaps by working together the stores, libraries, faculty, students, and university administrations could find a more effective solution that upholds both values. To quote Marc Fleischaker, NACS general counsel:

This case raises very complex, but very important issues. As we move more rapidly toward digital delivery, it is important for publishers, schools, stores, and students that the copyright issues be clarified. Digital delivery doesn't mean free delivery, and the concept of 'fair use' is not necessarily different merely because content is delivered digitally instead of physically. Most stores now obtain appropriate permission before putting materials in a coursepack. One would hope that the industry could reach a consensus through discussion about how to treat digital materials, but if it can't happen through discussions, it is not surprising that litigation results. We will follow this issue closely at NACS, and work to develop a model that can be successful for students, universities, stores, libraries, and publishers.

That is all I have to say on this topic for now, but I expect to see and hear more about IP issues and digital course materials over the coming 12-24 months. Can anyone reading this list provide some good links for readers that provide more information on this topic?

CourseSmart partners with Nebraska Books

Nebraska Books and CourseSmart announced a new partnership in a press release that came out earlier this week. CourseSmart is, of course, the multi-publisher venture to deliver e-books. Nebraska Books is one of the larger contract management or "leasing" companies operating in the college store industry. Nebraska Books also provides a range of other services to non-leased stores, such as buying and providing used books.

One of the services Nebraska Books provides is called Jumpbooks. Among the first widespread offerings for delivering digital course materials through stores, Jumpbooks provide a lower cost option for students while allowing stores to maintain the customer relationship and brand viability.

The partnership with CourseSmart enables Nebraska Books to gain access to a much larger inventory of digital content from the publishers. In addition, it provides a channel by which the stores can maintain ownership of the digital transaction. That is a significant accomplishment. This partnership also demonstrates that stores and publishers can work effectively together to define new relationships based on existing and new value propositions.

It is my understanding that CourseSmart is in conversation with other leading digital delivery service providers within the college store industry. We should expect to see more offerings and potential solutions in the months ahead. On the whole this development should be viewed as positive for the industry and students as it provides another lower-cost way to get access to a larger inventory of digital content backed by the convenience and authentication* that stores provide.

* By authentication, I mean verifying that the content students purchase through the store have been verified as the correct materials the faculty member requested for a course.

Hot off the press...

Okay, I am holding a couple news stories back to post Friday (when else). However, the following news story just came across my scan and it is worth sharing. There have been a couple interesting news stories out of the London Book Fair this week, but this press release in particular caught my eye. The piece describes the experiments of a UK bookseller (John Smith & Son) with digital for three UK universities-- and their plans to expand offerings next fall. The passage of particular interest here:

Outcomes from the trial revealed an untapped demand for textbooks that fit today’s students’ lifestyles while meeting their academic needs. “In some instances, the adoption rate of the digital version of a required textbook was as high as 30 percent of the students enrolled in the course,” commented Alan Leitch, John Smith’s marketing director. “The John Smith experiment demonstrated that students are eager to embrace e-books that truly contribute to their learning experience.”

The project was supported by VitalSource, an Ingram Digital Ventures company. Just another example though of a strengthening trend towards digital adoption by students.

Will increasing digital create more information black holes?

In an article published last week the New York Times reported on developments in digital at Amazon. Yet again, this is an interesting news story with signs of both the amount of experimentation going on in the marketplace, and the expectation that we are nearing the tipping point for digital content sales.

Just two days ago Ingram Digital reported in a news release that the number of e-books sold by the company in March 2008 surpassed the previous record by 50 percent. The article notes that "Ingram Digital’s recent record performance confirms the current upward trend in e-book consumption."

Of course, for those holding out against any uptick in digital, the following news story might be encouraging. "Researchers uncovered black holes across the Internet," reads the headline. Actually, it is actually kind of interesting in its findings -- discovering that a percentage of the computer connections they tested worldwide have what the researchers call "partial reachability" -- a scenario where content just gets lost going from point A to point B, even when a stable connection is believed to exist. Chalk one up to Internet astronomy -- I think I will remember this news story the next time I am delayed from posting content to the blog.

Direct to student from university presses

In an interesting move, the SUNY Press has created a "Direct Text" program to sell its content directly to students and faculty electronically and at lower cost than its hardcover editions. This news was published through Inside Higher Ed last week. The news boasts that SUNY Press is the first university press to sell digital and hardcover books simultaneously. I am curious as to how this relates to the Caravan initiative where participating presses can produce content in multiple formats simultaneously. Regardless of 'who was first' it is an interesting move based on some of the same premises we hear repeatedly from many sectors -- we must find a way to provide quality course materials to students (and faculty) at a lower cost, and that digital is part of the solution. An interesting news story all the same.

More on CafeScribe acquisition

A couple weeks ago I commented on the acquisition of CafeScribe/Fourteen40 by Follett. In this week's Campus Technology there is an interesting interview with Bryce Johnson, CEO for the company. The piece has some interesting comments. I know one person wrote me recently to ask if CafeScribe is working on a hardware based e-reader (like the Kindle). Bryce somewhat answers that question:

CT: Are we at the tipping point with e-books because of hardware like the Amazon
Kindle?

Johnson: [In my study] ... I looked at hardware as well. In fact, [we]
had a piece of hardware that was identical to the Kindle. For the first eight
months [of launching Fourteen40], that's what I was pursuing. We rolled it out
at Stanford as a pilot and students said, "How much is this? $400? No way. I
just want [content] on my laptop."

Bryce also points out a common problem for many in the e-textbook space currently -- the lack of content (aka digital assets, aka inventory). Bryce predicts that once the content inventory is improved (which he estimates will occur over the next 12-18 months) that student adoption of digital will improve. I have made some of the same predictions -- that a big current barrier is the lack of complete or sufficient inventory. There are other barriers though, as well, so it remains to be seen how quickly adoption will unfold. I expect we will see improved adoption over the next academic year (2008-2009), but it is likely the following year where a bigger effect will be felt.

Finally, my favorite set of quotes from the interview:

CT: At one point last fall, you offered scratch-and-sniff stickers with a
musty smell to them. Where did that idea come from?

Johnson: We're brainstorming one day. In a survey, we asked students ... what they [would] miss in a normal textbook or book. I think 60 percent of them responded that they missed the smell. We thought, "They like the smell. We'll ship you a scratch and sniff you can stick in your laptops." That's where that came from.

CT: And does it really smell like an old book?

Johnson: It really does.

Open access textbooks

Nicole Allen, textbooks program director for the student PIRGs submitted an update and gave me permission to repost some of the update here. A big push of the student PIRGs this year will be open access textbooks -- essentially free, self-published textbook equivalents. Some sources of information on open textbook content from Nicole:

• I think many of you might be interested in a new publishing company - the world's first open textbook publisher Flat World Knowledge. They provide commercial-grade textbooks open for faculty to modify and free for students to read.
• The California community colleges has created CCCOER - a consortium devoted to developing open textbooks and other resources for use in community colleges to reduce costs and improve learning outcomes.
• Another place to visit for resources is MERLOT - another huge repository of online material. One innovative feature MERLOT offers is a mechanism for ratings and peer reviews.

A related source to check out is Connexions. I think Connexions is a very interesting approach to self-publishing and open access textbooks.

I am not sure if open access textbooks will make a big dent in the traditional textbook market, but certainly it is an interesting movement worth watching. There is some interesting innovation happeninig in this space motivated, of course, by a desire to reduce the cost of textbooks.